Takeaways from the latest special election and what it means for control of the House

"Republicans won a special congressional election in Tennessee, but only by 9 points in a district the Republican candidate last year won by 22 points. That's in line with the double-digit overperformances by Democrats in elections this year. On average, Democrats have done 14 points better than candidates in 2024 (including comparing the presidential results in 2024 to the governors' races in New Jersey and Virginia last month). Here's how that breaks down:"

"It allowed a new congressional map to move forward in Texas despite a lower-court ruling that Republicans' redistricting efforts in the state were an illegal racial gerrymander. The high court's conservative majority instead indicated the new map appears to be a legal, partisan gerrymander. President Trump hopes the redrawn map nets Republicans five seats and solidifies the GOP's very narrow majority in the House."

Democrats have overperformed 2024 results by roughly 14 points on average across multiple 2025 contests, narrowing previously large Republican margins and producing consistent double-digit shifts. Specific races show Democratic swings between 8 and 19 points compared with 2024 baselines, including Florida, Virginia, Arizona, New Jersey, and Tennessee. The Supreme Court approved a new Texas congressional map despite lower-court findings of racial gerrymandering, treating it as a lawful partisan map. Republicans expect the redrawn Texas map to yield up to five seats, but Democrats are pursuing countermeasures by redrawing maps in California and Virginia and gaining a potential Utah seat.

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