States Are Jostling for 2028 Presidential-Primary Spots

"The first 2028 presidential primaries are just two years away. And for the first time since 2016, both parties are expected to have serious competition for their nominations. While Vice-President J.D. Vance is likely to enter the cycle as a formidable front-runner for the GOP nod, recent history suggests there will be lots of other candidates. After all, Donald Trump drew 12 challengers in 2024."

"What some observers call the presidential-nominating "system" isn't something the national parties control. In the case of primaries utilizing state-financed election machinery, state laws govern the timing and procedures. Caucuses (still abundant on the Republican side and rarer among Democrats) are usually run by state parties. National parties can vitally influence the calendar via carrots (bonus delegates at the national convention) or sticks (loss of delegates) and try to create "windows" for different kinds of states to hold their nominating contests"

Both parties are expected to face serious nomination contests in 2028, with Vice-President J.D. Vance likely to start as a strong GOP front-runner while many challengers remain likely. The Democratic field lacks an obvious presumptive nominee, though Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris lead very early polls. The primary calendar is not yet settled because state laws govern timing and procedures for state-run primaries and state parties typically run caucuses. National parties can influence the schedule through delegate bonuses or penalties and by creating windows for different types of states. Democrats have pushed to make early states more representative and to level the playing field.

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