Once Again, Republicans Have a Trump Problem

"At the moment, Trump seems to be defying the lame-duck precedent. No president has ever had a more dominant position in his own party, having crushed all intraparty dissent in his triumphant 2024 reelection campaign and then reduced the usually proud congressional leaders of the GOP to the status of loyal satraps. Whatever their private misgivings, all Republicans publicly sing his praises."

"The problem now, of course, is that Trump won't be on the ballot in the 2026 midterm elections, either. So if the key to victory is to turn out every single pro-Trump voter, that would mean making the midterms even more of a referendum on the incumbent president than it will be in any case. That would certainly be Trump's preference, of course; the Sun King always believes he is the source of all radiance."

Presidential influence over a political party typically fades by the end of two terms, producing a lame-duck effect. Donald Trump has already exceeded that usual timeline by securing three presidential nominations, a rare prolonged hold last seen with Richard Nixon. Trump crushed intraparty dissent in the 2024 election and subordinated congressional GOP leaders to public fealty despite private misgivings. Republicans explained poor off-year 2024 performance by noting Trump's absence from the ballot reduced turnout of low-propensity 2024 supporters. The 2026 midterms will again lack Trump on the ballot, posing a strategic challenge given his declining approval and unpopular agenda, especially on living costs.

Read at Intelligencer