Mortgage rate volatility returns ahead of Trump's Davos speech

"Today is a good day to see if the White House's mortgage-backed security purchase game plan works, said Logan Mohtashami, HousingWire's lead analyst. With the 10-year yield at 6.28% today, we would normally be over 6.30% with mortgage rates now. In 2026, the spreads are lower to start the year. We ended Friday at 6.07%, so if rates are under 6.30%, the buying helped limit the damage from bond yield action with all the crazy headlines and market reaction today."

"Jeff DerGurahian, chief investment officer and head economist at loanDepot, said Monday that the past week has provided an unusually high level of noise which has pushed Treasury rates and mortgage rates higher. He also believes the chances of the Federal Reserve continuing its recent rate-cutting campaign next week have been fully wiped out, with June emerging as the earliest realistic window."

"This will likely include additional details on his proposed 401(k) down-payment plan, which we're eager to learn as it will help us to determine the impact it could have on housing affordability. Discussion around Greenland is also expected to dominate the Forum, as it has already triggered a bit of risk of selling off long term U.S. debt in the futures market this morning."

White House mortgage-backed security purchases helped cap mortgage-rate increases despite a 10-year Treasury yield near 6.28%, keeping mortgage rates below typical levels. Mortgage rates ended the prior week at 6.07%, suggesting intervention limited damage from bond-yield moves. Recent market noise pushed Treasury and mortgage rates higher and reduced near-term odds of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut, with June emerging as the earliest plausible timing. Davos is expected to feature a Fed Chair selection and housing proposals including a 401(k) down-payment plan; geopolitics such as Greenland discussion may pressure long-term U.S. debt. KBW expects affordability measures to focus on borrowers given supply constraints and high home-price appreciation.

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