"Desperate not to lose the House in the midterms, the president sought to rig the game. He pressured legislatures in red states to create new Republican-leaning districts, and lawmakers duly redrew their maps. That weakened some safe red seats, but the GOP assumed that it would hurt Democrats more. Last Tuesday's results demonstrate the folly of Trump's gamble."
"Wake-up call Trump's 2024 coalition is crumbling. To win in less-red Republican districts, the party will need all the voters Trump pulled together to achieve his 1.5 percentage point victory in 2024 young men, Latino voters and his MAGA base. But exit polls show that in the governors' races in both Virginia and New Jersey, men and Latino voters abandoned the GOP in massive numbers, and in races across the country, many supported Democrats."
"In New Jersey, 68% of Latino voters broke for Democrat Mikie Sherrill. So did 56% of men under the age of 30. In Virginia, 67% of Latino voters went for Democrat Abigail Spanberger. So did 57% of men under 30. Many of these voters had voted for Trump last year. The exit polls show that both Sherrill and Spanberger won 7% of Trump's 2024 voters, with Sherrill getting a whopping 18% of Trump's Hispanic support in the state."
Republicans followed President Trump's push for mid-decade redistricting to protect the House by pressuring red-state legislatures to create new Republican-leaning districts. Lawmakers redrew maps, weakening some safe Republican seats while betting Democrats would be hurt more. Recent off-year election losses in Virginia and New Jersey show that strategy failed. Trump's 2024 coalition—young men, Latino voters and the MAGA base—is eroding. Exit polls show large swings by men and Latino voters toward Democrats in governors' races: New Jersey's Latino voters favored Mikie Sherrill 68% and 56% of men under 30 did likewise; Virginia's Latino voters favored Abigail Spanberger 67% and 57% of men under 30. Both Sherrill and Spanberger captured 7% of Trump's 2024 voters, and Sherrill captured 18% of Trump's Hispanic support in New Jersey, undermining GOP assumptions used in redistricting calculations.
Read at www.mercurynews.com
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