Fragmenting Latino vote now a wildcard in elections

""It's a dealignment. It's not a realignment," Mike Madrid, a GOP consultant and author of "The Latino Century: How America's Largest Minority is Transforming Democracy," tells Axios. He said Latinos - an ethnically diverse group that makes up 15% of the U.S. electorate - now have the least party loyalty of any major voting group, making them the bloc most likely to identify as independents."

"MAGA Hispanics align with Trump-era Republican politics, often driven by economic populism, cultural conservatism and anti-establishment sentiment rather than traditional GOP ideology. This group includes working-class men, small-business owners and evangelical or Catholic voters. They emphasize order, masculinity, religion and skepticism toward elites. They get much of their political information through YouTube, Spanish-language radio, WhatsApp and podcasts. Movement Progressives are anchored in left-leaning social and economic movements, including labor rights, racial justice, climate activism and student debt relief."

Latinos comprise 15% of the U.S. electorate and exhibit the least party loyalty among major voting groups, increasingly identifying as independents. Three distinct 2026 segments are MAGA Hispanics, Movement Progressives and Disillusioned Nonvoters. MAGA Hispanics favor Trump-era positions driven by economic populism, cultural conservatism and anti-establishment sentiment, and rely on YouTube, Spanish-language radio, WhatsApp and podcasts. Movement Progressives focus on labor, racial justice, climate and student debt relief, skew younger and urban, use TikTok and Instagram, and punish perceived inauthenticity. Disillusioned Nonvoters are politically aware but often disengage, especially among working-class and young voters, consuming information through YouTube, Facebook, WhatsApp and peer networks.

Read at Axios