Florida poll shows Republicans lead Democrats in statewide races - but only by single digits

"In hypothetical head-to-head matchups in the marquee contest in Florida this year, Donalds was 6 percentage points ahead of Jolly and 7 points ahead of Demings. The University of North Florida poll found Donalds ahead of Jolly, 42% to 36%. Donalds led Demings, 43% to 36%."

"Florida hasn't elected a Democratic governor in more than 30 years. The party hasn't won a statewide election since 2018. And Florida has 1.5 million more active registered Republican voters than Democrats; less than five years ago, the state had more Democrats than Republicans."

"There are several caveats. It's still relatively early, and some of the candidates for top statewide office aren't especially well known. There's plenty of time for candidates to improve or worsen their standings. In a hypothetical Donalds-Jolly contest, 17% said they didn't know who they'd vote for."

A University of North Florida poll shows Republican Byron Donalds leading Democratic candidates David Jolly and Jerry Demings in hypothetical matchups for Florida governor. Donalds holds a 42%-36% lead over Jolly and 43%-36% over Demings. Similar patterns appear in the Senate race, with Republican Ashley Moody ahead of Democrats Alex Vindman and Angie Nixon. Substantial undecided voters remain in both races. Florida's political landscape heavily favors Republicans, with 1.5 million more registered Republican voters than Democrats and no Democratic gubernatorial victory in over 30 years. However, the competitive polling margins encourage Democrats seeking donor support, while Republicans use the results to mobilize their base.

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