Democrats and Republicans are pouring money into a special election in Tennessee. Here's why

"A congressional special election in Tennessee has become the latest battleground for Democrats and Republicans seeking to craft a winning message ahead of the 2026 midterms. Historically, Tennessee's 7th Congressional District is a fairly conservative district that gave President Trump roughly 60% of the vote last November. Former Rep. Mark Green, who resigned in July, won by a similar margin."

"According to the latest Federal Election Commission data, outside groups have spent more than $6.5 million on the race, including more than $1.6 million from the pro-Trump MAGA Inc. super PAC. Two-thirds of the total super PAC spending has come in the last two weeks of the race as early voting picked up in earnest. Scant public polling of a typically lower-turnout special election coupled with a less reliable sense of who will make up the electorate has also added pressure on both parties."

Tennessee's 7th Congressional District is traditionally conservative, having given President Trump roughly 60% of the vote and previously electing Rep. Mark Green by a similar margin. Democrats have overperformed their 2024 margins in special elections this year by an average of 13% and have recently achieved notable victories across multiple races. The contest between Republican Matt Van Epps and Democrat Aftyn Behn has drawn national attention and substantial outside spending. Outside groups have poured millions into the race, much of it in the final weeks, while limited public polling and uncertain turnout have intensified get-out-the-vote efforts.

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