"The turnout last night in Tennessee, 7th district was equal to the turnout in the 2022 midterm election. So the blue wave, it seems to be building right out of the center of Tennessee. I will note I looked at the stats if in fact you had a 13-point shift like we saw in Tennessee, and you applied that to the 2024 presidential map. We are talking about a gain for Democrats of north of 40 seats."
"The district was one President Donald Trump carried by 22 points in 2024, 15 in 2020 and 17 in 2016. A nine-point win, Enten argued, is effectively a 13-point Democratic surge. When a party outperformed in special elections since 2005, five out of five times, they went on to win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. What happened last night in Tennessee is a very, very bad omen for Republicans"
Republican Matt Van Epps won Tennessee's 7th Congressional District by nine points over progressive Aftyn Behn. The district voted for Donald Trump by 22 points in 2024, 15 in 2020 and 17 in 2016, making the margin an effective roughly 13-point Democratic swing. Turnout in the special election equaled the 2022 midterm level. Applying a similar shift to the 2024 presidential map projects Democrats could gain north of 40 House seats. Since 2005, the party that outperformed in special elections went on to win a House majority in five of five instances.
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