"You know, this is a poll that came out yesterday, a Marquette University Law School poll, and I don't think it picked up enough coverage that it should have, because these numbers should be truly frightening to Republicans. Why do I point it out? Why do I say that? Okay, Dems versus Republicans on the generic congressional ballot. If you look at all voters, this matches the average. You see Democrats up by five points."
"Okay, that's not a bad position, but it's not as strong as they were in the 2018 cycle at this point. But come over to this side of the screen. This is where it gets truly frightening for the GOP, because among those certain to vote, look at thisthe Democratic advantage nearly doubles. We're talking about a nine-point advantage, going from five to nine points, and this matches with what we're seeing in other polls, which is huge Democratic enthusiasm. Huge."
A Marquette University Law School poll shows Democrats leading by five points on the generic congressional ballot among all voters and by nine points among those certain to vote. The larger advantage among certain voters aligns with other polls and signals heightened Democratic enthusiasm. Historical comparisons indicate unusually strong early-cycle Democratic certainty. The gap between overall and certain-voter figures underscores that turnout, not just persuasion, will be decisive in the 2026 midterms. A nine-point advantage among likely voters represents a substantial turnout edge that poses major challenges for Republican electoral prospects.
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