"California's proposed wealth tax is coming in for a lot of criticism these days. From Gov. Gavin Newsom, who counts many billionaires as friends and donors and yet was raised by a single mother juggling three jobs, to Anduril founder Palmer Luckey's vociferous objections, to the Google guys Larry Page and Sergey Brin voting with their feet, much of the Golden State's ultrawealthy is objecting to this policy. But what if the policy wouldn't even work that well, once implemented?"
"The Wharton School professor and faculty director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), speaking to Fortune from his office in Philadelphia, recently argued that the measure is an inefficient revenue tool born from a "perfect storm of craziness" in the current economic and social climate that makes "populist" ideas like this so sticky. As the state grapples with a significant budget shortfall, Smetters warns that taxing the ultrawealthy would simply fail to provide the expected windfall."
A proposed California wealth tax targeting the ultrawealthy faces substantial political opposition and practical challenges. The measure is likely to underperform revenue expectations because of behavioral responses by wealthy individuals, difficulties valuing assets, and potential migration of capital or taxpayers. Political and economic conditions have increased the appeal of populist tax ideas despite their inefficiencies. The state confronts a significant budget shortfall, yet the wealth tax may not deliver the anticipated windfall and could prove an inefficient fiscal tool when implementation complexities and taxpayer reactions are accounted for.
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