"In the video, Harry Enten, the network's chief data analyst, stares into the camera and breathlessly tells his audience about the gambling odds that Donald Trump will buy any of Greenland. "The people who are putting their money where their mouth is-they are absolutely taking this seriously," Enten says. He taps the giant touch screen behind him and pulls up a made-for-TV graphic: Based on how people were betting online at the time, there was a 36 percent chance that the president would annex Greenland."
"These odds were pulled from Kalshi, which hilariously claims not to be a gambling platform: It's a "prediction market." People go to sites such as Kalshi and Polymarket-another big prediction market-in order to put money down on a given news event. Nobody would bet on something that they didn't believe would happen, the thinking goes, and so the markets are meant to forecast the likelihood of a given outcome."
Online prediction markets allow users to wager real money on the probability of news events, producing live odds for political and personal outcomes. A CNN clip highlighted a 36 percent market probability that Donald Trump would buy Greenland, with other odds for elections and world leaders displayed on a ticker. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket position themselves as prediction markets rather than gambling sites and accept bets on a wide array of scenarios. The underlying idea is that financial stakes reveal bettors' genuine beliefs, and these markets have surged in popularity among internet-active young men who trade speculative assets.
Read at The Atlantic
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