"The GDP number arrived just before Christmas, wrapped like good news. The U.S. economy grew at a 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter, blowing past economists' expectations and delivering the kind of headline that signals strength heading into the new year. Consumers went on an unusually strong spending tear while corporations cinched $166 billion in capital gains. President Donald Trump and his team wasted no time celebrating, taking a victory lap"
"Well, slow down, those dour economists replied. There's something missing in this boom: the jobs. Hiring this year, at best, has stalled, and at worst has collapsed: unemployment has climbed to 4.6%, and even Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned recent data may be overstating job gains. This is the puzzle economists are now trying to reconcile. In a typical recovery, strong GDP growth shows up first in hiring, then in paychecks, and finally in consumer spending."
The U.S. economy expanded at a 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter driven by unusually strong consumer spending and $166 billion in corporate capital gains. Political leaders celebrated the headline growth even as hiring stalled and unemployment rose to 4.6%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that recent data may overstate job gains. Real disposable income was essentially flat in the quarter, so households financed spending through savings drawdowns, credit, or by absorbing unavoidable costs. The growth was concentrated mostly in services, producing a rare divergence between GDP growth and labor-market strength.
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