"Prediction markets provide an opportunity to trade - or wager - on the result of future events. The markets are comprised of typically yes-or-no questions called event contracts, with the prices connected to what traders are willing to pay, which theoretically indicates the perceived probability of an event occurring. The buy-in for each contract ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what traders think could happen."
"More than $47.3 million was wagered on Kalshi's market for " Who will perform at the Big Game? " A Polymarket contract had more than $10 million in volume. Cardi B joined singers Karol G and Young Miko and actors Jessica Alba and Pedro Pascal on a starry front porch during the halftime spectacle. She danced to the music, but it was unclear whether she was singing along during the show, which included performances by Ricky Martin and Lady Gaga."
"Due to "ambiguity over whether or not Cardi B's attendance at the 2026 Super Bowl halftime show constituted a qualifying 'performance,'" Kalshi cited one of its rules in settling the market at the last price before trading was paused: $0.74 for No holders and $0.26 for Yes holders. The platform returned all the money to its users."
Cardi B's appearance in Bad Bunny's Super Bowl halftime show created uncertainty over whether she qualified as performing. Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket offered yes-or-no contracts on whether she performed, drawing heavy trading volumes—over $47.3 million on Kalshi and more than $10 million on Polymarket. Kalshi paused trading, cited ambiguity about a qualifying performance, settled at the last price before the pause ($0.74 No, $0.26 Yes) and returned user funds. At least one Kalshi trader filed a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission alleging improper handling. Polymarket resolved the contract as a performance but faced disputes and an expected final decision.
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