Uh-Oh! President Trump's Landmark Tax Cuts Bill Could Be What Kills the Trump Bull Market

"Since Jan. 20, 2025, the S&P 500 has climbed 23.4%. More stunningly, it has surged 48.5% since the April 8, 2025 tariff panic low, as investors decided the White House's trade fights were survivable and artificial intelligence spending was unstoppable."

"That rebound has surprised even longtime market skeptics. Hedge fund billionaire Paul Tudor Jones recently warned that stock valuations resembled previous bubble periods, yet he also admitted AI could keep stocks climbing longer than many expect. In fact, despite his prediction of a 35% market correction in the next two years, Jones has been buying AI stocks."

"Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," signed into law on July 4, 2025, delivered what the White House called the largest tax cut package in U.S. history. Lower corporate taxes, accelerated depreciation, and investment incentives helped push earnings forecasts higher across the market. Goldman Sachs estimates S&P 500 earnings growth was "front-loaded" after the law passed."

"The law allowed exchanges to create fast-track index inclusion rules for newly public companies. Previously, Nasdaq-100 candidates generally needed a seasoning period before joining major indexes - up to one year, or long enough for markets to establish stable pricing and liquidity. However, the Nasdaq exchange implemented its new fast-track rule effective May 1, allowing qualifying mega-IPOs to enter the Nasdaq-100 almos"

The S&P 500 rose 23.4% since Jan. 20, 2025 and gained 48.5% from an April 8, 2025 tariff panic low. Investors viewed trade conflicts as survivable and AI spending as unstoppable, driving a sharp rebound. Hedge fund billionaire Paul Tudor Jones warned that valuations resemble bubble periods and predicted a 35% correction within two years, while still buying AI stocks. A July 4, 2025 law delivered large corporate tax cuts, accelerated depreciation, and investment incentives, lifting earnings forecasts and supporting elevated valuations near 23 times forward earnings for the S&P 500 and about 25 times for the Nasdaq-100. The law also enabled exchanges to use fast-track index inclusion rules for newly public companies, reducing or eliminating prior seasoning periods and potentially changing market dynamics.

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