Prediction Markets All But Write Off Jasmine Crockett in Texas Dem Primary

"Talarico has an 88% chance of emerging victorious when the polls close at 7:00 p.m. local time, according to Polymarket. He's an even bigger favorite on Kalshi, where Talarico has a 90% chance to win, and Crockett is pegged at only 11%. That means if you placed a $100 bet on Crockett and she pulled it off, you'd win $910."

"Crockett received a last-minute endorsement from ex-Vice President Kamala Harris last week, who recorded a supportive robocall message urging Texas liberals to vote for her. Talarico's campaign, meanwhile, has highlighted praise that former President Barack Obama gave him last year. Obama dubbed Talarico a really talented young man."

"He just comes across [as] a more genuine guy. He's more electable, one 72-year-old primary voter told The New York Times about Talarico on Tuesday. Either Talarico or Crockett will face the Republican primary winner in November."

In the Texas Democratic primary Senate race, State Representative James Talarico is heavily favored to defeat Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Prediction markets show Talarico with an 88% chance of victory on Polymarket and 90% on Kalshi, while Crockett has only an 11% chance. A $100 bet on Crockett would yield $910 if she wins. Crockett received a last-minute endorsement from former Vice President Kamala Harris through a robocall, while Talarico has highlighted praise from former President Barack Obama. Talarico gained recent media attention when Stephen Colbert claimed CBS prevented their interview broadcast, though CBS denied this and cited FCC Equal Time rules. The Democratic primary winner will face the Republican nominee in November, with candidates including incumbent Senator John Cornyn, Representative Wesley Hunt, and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

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