5 takeaways from the first primaries of the 2026 midterms

"The three-way race between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt meant that no one was able to get above 50% of the vote. That means 12 more weeks of the Texas Senate GOP primary until May 26. This has already been the most expensive Senate primary in history, and another $100 million could be spent on top of the nearly $100 million that was already spent on just the Republican side."

"Cornyn vs. Paxton is really the old vestiges of the traditional GOP against the new MAGA pugilists. The question is whether President Trump will get involved and put his finger on the scale to pick the candidate he thinks can win. Trump avoided making an endorsement in the lead-up, saying he liked all three candidates, but with the Democratic side decided does Trump change his mind?"

"Texas has been Democrats' white whale, their Lucy and the football getting close, but coming up just short. The Crockett campaign argued she would have a better shot because she could turn out new voters and fire up those who aren't enthusiastic about Democratic leadership. But the reality is for Democrats to win, it's going to take a triple-bank shot for a party that hasn't had a candidate win statewide since 1994."

The 2026 midterm campaign's first primaries in North Carolina and Texas produced significant results with potential consequences for congressional control. In Texas, no Republican Senate candidate achieved 50% of the vote, forcing a runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton, with Rep. Wesley Hunt eliminated. The race represents a clash between traditional GOP and MAGA factions, with uncertainty about Trump's involvement. The Republican primary has already become the most expensive Senate primary in history, with potentially another $100 million to be spent. On the Democratic side, state Rep. James Talarico defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, though Democrats face long odds in the general election, having not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994.

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