"Little more than a month on, pollsters are now talking about arguably the most underpriced wildcard in the 2025 pack, which is the prospect of the Greens overtaking Labour in the polls in the same way Reform overtook the Tories at the end of last year not just in one rogue sample or outlier, but consistently enough to be credible."
"In the most recent YouGov poll, the Greens are still four points behind Labour. But that's down from 12 points in August, just before Polanski was elected, and other polls have put them almost at parity. If both parties stick to their current trajectories Labour drowning in pre-budget gloom and recriminations and the Greens surfing an optimistic wave of voters looking for a British equivalent to New York's upbeat new socialist mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani then the psychologically important crossover point could be only weeks away."
"The two biggest obstacles to smaller parties breaking through are getting airtime, and convincing potential supporters that it won't be a wasted vote. Like Nigel Farage before him, Polanski is good at making himself heard: his habit of saying bluntly out loud the things other politicians normally fudge has already made him big on TikTok, and is increasingly becoming his passport to TV studios."
Zack Polanski won the Green leadership in September and declared an intention to replace Labour. Initial skepticism arose from the Greens' low polling and Polanski not yet being an MP. Polling has shifted markedly: Greens moved from 12 points behind Labour in August to four points behind in a recent YouGov poll, with other surveys showing near parity. If Labour continues to struggle pre-budget while the Greens maintain momentum, a psychological crossover in the polls could occur within weeks. Major barriers for smaller parties remain securing airtime and persuading voters a Green vote will not be wasted. Polanski's blunt style and TikTok prominence are boosting his media access.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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