"Folly makes money. Creative destruction and manic folly are exactly why the U.S. is the center of innovation in the world,"
"Companies are allowed to innovate themselves to death. And ever more spring up to do the same. Sometimes the new company is the same company on a pivot."
"And once again there is a Cisco at the center of it all, with the picks and shovels for all and the expansive vision to go with it,"
"Its name is Nvidia."
Signs of an AI bubble center on supply-side gluttony and oversized market concentration. Nvidia occupies a central, pick-and-shovel role analogous to Cisco during the late 1990s dot‑com surge. Cisco's stock rose roughly 3,800% from 1995 to 2000 before collapsing over 80% at the millennium. Current large-cap AI leaders—Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon and Oracle—dominate valuations and investor attention. Rapidly inflating valuations, concentrated market power, and questions about product longevity raise the risk of a sectorwide correction when creative destruction and excess supply exhaust profitable opportunities.
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