Live: Will Meta Platforms Rally After Q4 Earnings Tonight?

"I'll be watching 2026 capital expenditure guidance more closely than the fourth-quarter print. Meta announced major infrastructure deals in the past week, including up to $6 billion with Corning for fiber-optic infrastructure through 2030, a $25 million upfront payment to Oklo for advanced nuclear power, and 2.5 gigawatts of clean energy agreements with NextEra Energy. These moves signal aggressive AI infrastructure investment."

"Analysts expect Meta to report $8.18 in normalized earnings per share for the fourth quarter, representing a significant hurdle given the company's recent performance. The table below shows both quarterly and full-year consensus estimates: The fourth-quarter adjusted EPS estimate of $8.20 is higher than the $7.25 Meta reported in the third quarter, suggesting analysts expect sequential improvement. Revenue growth of 21% year over year would continue the strong top-line momentum seen throughout 2025, where quarterly revenue growth ranged from 16% to 26%."

"The company's operating margins remain exceptional at 40.1% on a trailing twelve-month basis, providing substantial room to fund this buildout while maintaining profitability. But if capex guidance doesn't show continued growth, investors in AI-related stocks could face pressure tomorrow. Morningstar analyst David Sekera noted that "if these spending forecasts do not continue to increase, investors in AI stocks, many of which are already considered overvalued, could face disappointment.""

Meta reports fourth-quarter 2025 results after the bell, following three quarters in 2025 where earnings beat consensus by an average of 17.4%. Analysts expect normalized Q4 EPS of about $8.18–$8.20, up from $7.25 in Q3, and project revenue growth near 21% year over year after quarterly 2025 revenue gains of 16%–26%. Recent infrastructure deals include up to $6 billion with Corning, a $25 million upfront payment to Oklo, and 2.5 gigawatts of clean energy agreements with NextEra, signaling aggressive AI infrastructure investment. Operating margins are about 40.1% TTM, offering room to fund capex, but insufficient 2026 capex guidance could pressure AI-related stocks. Morningstar analyst David Sekera warns investors could be disappointed if spending forecasts do not increase.

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