"According to TechInsights, memory pricing was already on the rise in 2024, growing 88 percent from a rather steep valley the year prior. Based on previous DRAM booms, one might expect it to grow at a slower pace in 2025, before contracting in 2026 or 2027. However, Sanders tells us that's unlikely to happen this time around. "I think we're looking at the peak in 2026," he said, adding that even then he only expects DRAM prices to settle in 2027."
"According to Sanders, the AI boom kicked off at what was very possibly the worst time for memory vendors. "This demand started in the Valley for the DRAM industry. That makes financially trying to build additional capacity really challenging," he said. "If you're rushing, the time to bring additional capacity online is about three years. It's a quirk of bad timing that's led to the circumstances that we're in now.""
DRAM pricing surged in 2024, increasing roughly 88 percent from a steep 2023 valley. Historical cycles might have predicted slower growth in 2025 and contraction by 2026 or 2027, but current dynamics point to a peak in 2026 with prices settling in 2027 and possibly rising again by 2028. Rapid AI-driven demand and poor timing for capacity expansion have constrained supply. Bringing new DRAM capacity online typically takes three to five years, delaying market relief. Major vendors face long fab ramp times, and consumer markets are experiencing especially acute price increases.
Read at Theregister
Unable to calculate read time
Collection
[
|
...
]