"It's the festive season, which means it's once again time for most major European leagues to give teams a little bit of a break while English teams (and Italian ones, to a degree) charge ahead with league play and two different cups. That's what the money's for, I guess. Regardless, this semi-pause -- and the symbolic flipping of the calendar -- makes for a good spot for once again taking stock. I like to periodically check in on an advanced stats form table of sorts. Below are the top 20 teams in Europe's Big Five leagues in what we'll call "adjusted goal differential" -- a mix of 30% goal differential and 70% xG differential in 11 vs. 11 situations -- in league play, domestic cup play* and UEFA competitions."
"The list below isn't opponent-adjusted, and two months isn't a long enough time to generate a true, predictive sample. But a list like this can still tell us who is in the best raw form right now. And the theme of 2025-26 remains the same: While Bayern Munich are no longer dominating so much that they're breaking the trend line, they're still setting the pace, and only Arsenal and maybe Manchester City are on a similar plane of existence."
Major European leagues observe a festive-season pause while English and Italian competitions continue with league matches and domestic cups. An "adjusted goal differential" metric mixes 30% goal differential and 70% xG differential in 11v11 across league, domestic cup and UEFA matches to evaluate team form. The Coupe de France and Copa del Rey are excluded because of frequent mismatches. The top-20 list is not opponent-adjusted and relies on a short, two-month sample, so it indicates raw current form rather than long-term predictive strength. Bayern Munich remain the pacesetters, with Arsenal and Manchester City close behind. Bayern hold the Bundesliga single-season points record (91 in 2012-13) and recently drew with Mainz.
Read at ESPN.com
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