"Arsenal and Bayern Munich finished the top two point totals in the Champions League league phase -- Arsenal pulled a perfect 24 points from eight matches, and Bayern only dropped points against Arsenal -- and they have led their respective domestic leagues from virtually start to present."
"Every so often, I check in on teams' form over the last couple of months using what I call "adjusted goal differential," a mix of 30% goal differential and 70% xG differential in 11 vs. 11 situations. It isn't opponent-adjusted and therefore isn't incredibly predictive, but it tells us who's hot."
"These two clubs have set the standard this season, but, well, the season's long. Are they still the best teams in Europe now that the season's stretch run is approaching? Not necessarily. They're among the best, but they have some company."
Arsenal and Bayern Munich dominated the Champions League league phase and their domestic competitions through most of 2025-26, establishing themselves as Europe's top teams. However, as the season approaches its stretch run, their dominance is being challenged. An analysis of adjusted goal differential—combining 30% goal differential with 70% xG differential in 11 vs. 11 situations across league play, domestic cups, and UEFA competitions—identifies the 30 hottest teams in Europe's Big Five leagues since January 5. This metric reveals which teams are performing best recently, even if it lacks opponent adjustment and predictive power. Barcelona emerges with notably strong adjusted goal differential, though this includes a significant 4-0 loss to Atletico Madrid in Copa del Rey play.
Read at ESPN.com
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