New factor in predicting who becomes criminal: when you were born. - Harvard Gazette

"Sampson mines 30 years of data on more than 1,000 Chicagoans born in the 1980s and '90s. The youngest cohort, born in the mid-1990s, came of age amid declining rates of violence, incarceration, and even lead exposure. Those in this younger sample proved far less likely to be arrested than the study's oldest participants, those born in the early to mid-1980s. The youngest were also less likely to use a firearm or witness gun violence."

"The new release builds upon Sampson's previous investigations into the individual, family, and community drivers of adult outcomes, including "Crime in the Making: Pathways and Turning Points Through Life" (1993) and "Great American City: Chicago and the Enduring Neighborhood Effect" (2012). "I view the new book as tackling some unfinished business in my career," Sampson said. "It basically argues that when we are also makes us who we are. You can think of it as the birth-lottery of history.""

Robert J. Sampson analyzes 30 years of data from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods, tracking more than 1,000 Chicago-born individuals from the 1980s and 1990s. The mid-1990s cohort experienced lower violence, incarceration, and lead exposure during formative years. Members of that cohort showed substantially lower arrest rates, reduced likelihood of using firearms, and fewer instances of witnessing gun violence compared with the early-1980s cohort. The findings link social change and historical context to individual crime trajectories. The research builds on Sampson's earlier work on life-course pathways and neighborhood effects and emphasizes timing within historical periods.

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