Gerrymander Blitz Could Undo GOP Progress With Black Voters

"Republicans from Donald Trump on down are excited that the landmark Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais has invited a wave of partisan gerrymanders in states they control. This could save GOP control of the House in November's elections, and lead to even bigger gains over the next few election cycles. The Virginia Supreme Court's shock decision on Friday invalidating a voter-approved retaliatory pro-Democratic gerrymander in that state has added to their excitement."

"As recently as 2024, there was a lot of talk about the Donald Trump-led GOP bringing back a "big tent" appeal to nonwhite voters, despite the boss's alleged lapses into racism. And indeed, Trump achieved a higher share of the Black vote (15 percent) than any Republican presidential candidate since 1960 - nearly doubling his percentage from four years earlier - despite facing a Black Democratic opponent. His percentage reached 21 percent among Black men, according to Pew's authoritative validated voter study."

"This narrative has already taken a beating thanks to Trump's second-term record. A May 4 Economist-YouGov survey showed that just nine percent of Black Americans approve of the president's job performance, while 8o percent disapprove (and 70 percent disapprove strongly). But the Trump-blessed state GOP assault on Black representation in Congress (and soon enough, state legislatures) that Callais has now unleashed is almost certainly going to blight the GOP brand for a long time among Black voters a"

A Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais is expected to enable partisan gerrymanders in states Republicans control, potentially preserving GOP House control and producing larger gains in future election cycles. A Virginia Supreme Court decision invalidated a voter-approved retaliatory pro-Democratic gerrymander, adding momentum to Republican efforts. Republicans are urged to consider how aggressive gerrymandering could affect attempts to improve their reputation among minority voters. In 2024, Trump increased his share of the Black vote, including 21 percent among Black men, fueling hopes of a political realignment. Approval ratings remain very low among Black Americans, and Republican actions reducing Black representation in Congress and state legislatures are likely to damage the GOP brand for a long time.

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