"You can question whether Trump's message was effective, and many people did. Clearly, this was a successful Trump pitch last year when Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were the incumbents, but a tougher sell now that he is back in office. But Trump needs to make a version of this argument ahead of the midterm elections. Whether it works or not will depend largely on whether public perceptions of the economy improve, if not by next summer then by Election Day."
"Most of the swing voters who cast their ballots for Trump did so because they trusted him more on the economy than the alternatives. They had fond memories of the pre-pandemic economy of Trump's first term, which featured both low unemployment and low inflation, and decided to give him a pass on the 2020 downturn caused by the lockdowns, which he backed more reluctantly than his opponents."
Rumors circulated that Trump would announce military action in Venezuela during his pre-Christmas primetime address, but he did not. He focused on defending his second-term economic record and blaming Democrats for contributing to the affordability crisis. The message had worked previously against incumbents but faces a tougher audience now that he is back in office. Trump needs to make a similar economic argument ahead of the midterms, and its success will hinge on whether public perceptions of the economy improve by the election. Foreign-policy diversions would likely dilute his core economic appeal to swing voters.
Read at The American Conservative
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