The Shutdown of U.S.A.I.D. Has Already Killed Hundreds of Thousands

"We chose Kenya because I'd done a lot of work there during my tenure, and because it's on a familiar path of development. Like India, South Korea, and many Latin American countries that the U.S. assisted to advance from low-income recipients of aid to higher-income trade partners, Kenya had reached the lower rung of middle-income status. The country had made dramatic leaps in health-system capacity and life expectancy with the help of a mixture of projects."

"The Administration, for its part, has denied causing widespread harm, even as it has made the scale of the damage harder to measure-halting data monitoring and dismissing the inspectors general who might have documented it. This is common in cases of public man-made death. During Mao Zedong's disastrous Great Leap Forward, from 1958 to 1961, the Chinese government released no accurate mortality data."

"A fuller accounting of the fallout from U.S.A.I.D.'s shutdown will probably have to await analysis of the United Nations' 2025 mortality statistics, which likely won't appear until 2027. But there are other ways to glimpse the scale of the harm. With a documentary team that includes both American and local journalists, I have been following what has happened in Kenyan communities where U.S.A.I.D. had been active-in an advanced-H.I.V. ward in Nairobi,"

The Administration denied causing widespread harm while halting data monitoring and dismissing inspectors general, making the scale of damage harder to measure. Historical precedent from China's Great Leap Forward shows withheld mortality data can mask catastrophic deaths. A full accounting of fallout from U.S.A.I.D.'s shutdown may depend on United Nations 2025 mortality statistics, unlikely before 2027. A documentary team of American and local journalists followed Kenyan communities where U.S.A.I.D. had been active, including advanced HIV wards, primary-care centers that sharply reduced malaria, and refugee camps. U.S.A.I.D. had supplied medicines, food, staffing, technical assistance, and investments that accelerated Kenya's health gains, so the shutdown likely harmed vulnerable populations and reversed progress.

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