"Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives to how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league."
"Bowen: A key matchup in this game to watch? It's the Chiefs' ability to heat up the pocket against Daniel Jones. When pressured this season, Jones has a 52.2 QBR, and his off-target rate jumps to 21.1%. I see the Chiefs -- who have a top-10 blitz rate -- dictating the flow of this game from a defensive perspective. Take them to cover the 3.5 points at Arrowhead."
Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen apply complementary approaches to identify sports-betting edges: player evaluation and X's and O's, statistical models for expected value, and film study plus NFL experience. Weekly selections span spreads, money lines, totals, and defensive player props to capture value wherever it appears. Results are tracked through the season with flat one-unit wagers for each listed pick. Week 12 recommendations include the Kansas City Chiefs to cover versus Indianapolis and an Indianapolis team total over 23.5, supported by pressure metrics and points-per-drive data.
Read at ESPN.com
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