The Guardian view on Nato airspace incursions: Russia is testing European and US will. It won't stop here | Editorial

"The sheer volume of headlines tells its own tale. Russian drones over Poland and Romania. Russian fighter jets in Estonian airspace. Russian aircraft buzzing a German naval frigate in the Baltic Sea. Unidentified drones over Copenhagen and Oslo airports. Most recently, in the early hours of Thursday, further drones appearing at other Danish airports. In just over a fortnight, European states have reported a striking spate of incursions into their airspace."

"Such operations may distract from Russia's slow progress on the battlefield in Ukraine. More obviously, they look like a test of both military responses and political will. On the first count, there is work to be done, judging from the reaction to the 19 drones in Polish airspace. On the second, Russia is testing whether Europe will hold its nerve in supporting Ukraine and perhaps others in future when faced with nuisance or worse."

"Most obviously, these incursions are also testing US intentions. Donald Trump suggested this week that Ukraine could win back its lost territory and that Nato countries should shoot down Russian aircraft entering their airspace. Yet that looks less like a reorientation of US policy than, in the words of one Nato official, his hot take of the hour. It is surely no coincidence that these events followed the red-carpet welcome that Mr Trump awarded Vladimir Putin in Alaska."

Multiple European states have reported drone and aircraft incursions into their airspace, including Poland, Romania, Estonia, Germany and several Danish airports. Russia has repeatedly denied responsibility while some states note professional actors and cannot yet fully rule out Russian involvement. The pattern aligns with Moscow's history of provocations and deniable operations and amounts to a notable escalation. The incursions may distract from slower progress in Ukraine and appear designed to test military responses, political resolve, and US commitment. Cheap drones have caused costly disruptions and forced flight suspensions, while political signals from the US may embolden further action.

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