France may soon have a far-right president and Europe is already scrambling to limit their power | Paul Taylor

"More than a year before the French choose a successor to Emmanuel Macron, the possibility of a rightwing populist government in France led by Marine Le Pen or her protege, Jordan Bardella, is keeping policymakers awake in Brussels, Berlin and Kyiv. While European leaders regard Macron with respect (and occasional irritation) as an experienced peer, they are gazing with growing anxiety over his shoulder to see who may follow him in May 2027."

"This is prompting some European partners to accelerate negotiations with Paris on nuclear deterrence, or the next long-term EU budget in the hope of locking in agreements that a future president will find hard to unpick. For example, eight European partners, including the nuclear-armed UK and seven non-nuclear states, have begun talks to come under France's forward nuclear deterrence."

"With Iran under bombardment and the Middle East in flames, this is also a hedge against Donald Trump's erratic presidency and the US strategic pivot away from Europe, which has raised uncertainty about Washington's commitment to maintaining a nuclear umbrella over the continent. The German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, says he plans to take concrete steps with France before the end of this year."

European policymakers are preparing contingency plans for the possibility that Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella could lead France after the 2027 presidential election. France's role as a nuclear-armed military power makes this prospect significant for EU stability, NATO, and Ukraine support. In response, eight European nations, including the UK and seven non-nuclear states, are negotiating to come under France's nuclear deterrence umbrella. Germany is taking unprecedented steps by planning to participate in French nuclear exercises and establish a nuclear strategy steering group. These accelerated negotiations aim to lock in agreements that would be difficult for a future French government to reverse, while also hedging against uncertainty regarding US commitment to European security under Trump's presidency.

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