"This was the year that upended nearly every assumption about the business of storytelling. A year ago, the refrain was 'Survive until '25'; this year there's no refrain because we realized rhymes don't change anything. All of which brings us to the last week of this pathological year and fresh hope for the new one. I'll keep the predictions short, starting with the TL;DR: Since nothing stays weird forever, the real work can finally begin."
"Movies will be made. Audiences exist. Talent is abundant. It's the shared assumptions that held the system together - production, financing, distribution, marketing, screens, and formats - that weakened, fractured, or shifted out from under. What happens next is a matter of perspective. The bad news (for those so inclined): No matter what Ted Sarandos promises about theaters, the decline of legacy Hollywood won't be reversed."
Seven months of observations revealed recurring, unusual conversations across roles and career stages signaling systemic upheaval in storytelling business. Market assumptions that sustained production, financing, distribution, marketing, screens, and formats weakened, fractured, or shifted. Audiences and talent remain, and films will continue to be made, but legacy Hollywood decline appears irreversible. A new operating reality is forming rather than a single replacement model, with 2026 marking its start. Filmmaking now requires blending creative vision with business strategy: producers acting like founders, directors articulating value, and projects shaped by formats, platforms, and audiences.
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