BP predicts higher oil and gas demand, suggesting world will not hit 2050 net zero target

"BP has raised its forecasts for oil and gas demand, suggesting the global net zero target for 2050 will not be met and highlighting a slowdown in the transition to clean energy. The energy company's closely watched outlook report has estimated that oil use is on track to hit 83m barrels a day in 2050, a rise of 8% compared with its previous estimate of 77m barrels a day."

"The current trajectory of the energy transition means natural gas demand could hit 4,806 cubic metres a year in 2050, BP said, up 1.6% from its previous estimate of 4,729 cubic metres. To meet global net zero targets by 2050 the fall in oil demand would have to occur sooner, and with greater intensity, dropping to about 85m barrels a day by 2035 and about 35m barrels by 2050, BP said."

"Spencer Dale, BP's chief economist, added that geopolitical tensions, such as the war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East and increasing use of trade tariffs had intensified demands around national energy security. For some, it may mean reducing dependency on imported fossil fuels, and accelerating the transition to greater electrification, powered by domestic low-carbon energy, he said. We may start to see the emergence of electrostates'."

BP increased its long-term forecasts for oil and gas, estimating oil use at 83m barrels a day in 2050 versus a prior estimate of 77m. Natural gas demand is projected at 4,806 cubic metres a year in 2050, up 1.6% from the previous forecast. Achieving net zero by 2050 would require a much earlier and steeper decline in oil demand, to about 85m barrels a day by 2035 and around 35m by 2050. Global oil consumption is currently about 100m barrels a day. Geopolitical tensions and trade measures are heightening energy-security priorities and may promote domestic low-carbon electrification. Renewables are forecast to grow from 10% of primary energy in 2023 to 15% in 2035, while oil is expected to remain the largest primary energy source at about 30% in 2035.

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