Are we really headed for a 'super' El Nino? What the science says

"Sea surface temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed more than usual, which is the hallmark of an emerging El Niño. Still uncertain, however, is whether winds and other weather factors will either ratchet up that ocean heat or temper it - and therefore weaken the possibility of a strong El Niño."

"The latest forecast from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), released today, suggests that there is a strong chance of an El Niño developing between May and July this year, but that there is much uncertainty in its peak strength. This will become clearer during summer in the Northern Hemisphere. (El Niños typically reach their maximum from October to February.)"

"El Niño is a complex global event that recurs roughly every two to seven years. The last one, in 2023-24, brought impacts, including drought and hunger to parts of southern Africa and record floods to southern Brazil. It also contributed to 2024 being the hottest year on record."

"This year, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific have been warmer than normal, rising as much as 1 ºC above average in recent weeks off the western coast of South America. On that basis, computer models from various government agencies and research groups suggest that the coming El Niño could peak more strongly than the previous one."

Sea surface temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific have warmed more than usual, indicating an emerging El Niño. Forecasts suggest a strong chance of development between May and July, but peak intensity is uncertain because winds and other atmospheric factors could either amplify or weaken the ocean heat. El Niño events recur every two to seven years and typically peak from October to February. The 2023–24 El Niño brought drought and hunger to parts of southern Africa and record floods to southern Brazil, and it contributed to 2024 being the hottest year on record. Current conditions show central and eastern tropical Pacific waters up to about 1°C above average, and models from multiple groups suggest the coming event could peak more strongly than the previous one.

Read at Nature