"Heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, crypto traders could give thanks that Bitcoin's price was clawing back major losses. But then Bitcoin plummeted again on Monday following the break. Now bettors on Kalshi, one of the biggest prediction markets, have knocked down its chance of crossing $100,000 by the end of the year-giving it around a 24% chance of hitting that mark compared to 60% at the outset of the holiday."
"Kalshi is one of the major players in prediction markets, along with its rival, Polymarket. Prediction markets gained popularity after the run-up to last year's U.S. presidential election, when Kalshi pointed to a Trump win in contrast to many highly regarded polls. Since then, Polymarket is seeking a valuation of up to $15 billion, while Kalshi's is up to $11 billion."
Bitcoin fell sharply after the Thanksgiving holiday, reducing the Kalshi-implied probability of surpassing $100,000 by year-end from about 60% to roughly 24%. Other Kalshi bets show a bearish crypto outlook: 63% of bettors expect Bitcoin to dip below $80,000 this year and 82% expect it will not exceed $200,000 by 2027. Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have grown in prominence, with Polymarket pursuing a valuation up to $15 billion and Kalshi up to $11 billion. Bitcoin is down about 8% to roughly $84,000, Ethereum about 10% to $2,752, and Solana about 9% to $125. Macroeconomic signals included Japan's two-year bond yield reaching a 17-year high.
Read at Fortune
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