Inevitable CBA Lockout Could Keep Cubs from Spending Big This Winter -

"Unless something drastic changes over the next 12 months, MLB owners and players are headed towards a lockout after the 2026 season. Whether fans realize it or not, this uncertainty surrounding the potential work stoppage will likely deter a number of teams from spending as much as they normally would this winter. Front offices will still be busy, but players may not necessarily get the long-term deals that they would otherwise expect."

"A record four players accepting the QO could purely be due to the fact that they would prefer a $22M "prove it" deal before seeking a long-term contract next winter. The impending lockout is surely another factor, with players considering one-year deals before the collective bargaining agreement changes contract terms next winter. The QO could merely be a preset value for the contract they would have sought."

"If the players are worried about the changes that could be coming to baseball's financial structure, front offices and ownership will be as well. The Cubs have one of the highest revenues in the sport, but their payroll doesn't reflect this. Jed Hoyer opted to stay under the first luxury tax threshold in 2025, resetting the penalties after barely surpassing the mark in 2024. With the punishments reset, this feels like a perfect opportunity to use their financial might to take control of the division for the next several years."

Uncertainty about a potential post-2026 lockout is likely to deter teams from normal offseason spending and push players toward shorter, one-year deals. Four players accepted the $22.025 million qualifying offer — Trent Grisham, Shōta Imanaga, Gleyber Torres, and Brandon Woodruff — opting for one-year choices instead of testing free agency. The record acceptance of the QO reflects preference for a $22M "prove it" season and concern about collective bargaining changes that could alter contract terms. Front offices share those concerns, and teams with payroll flexibility, like the Chicago Cubs, could capitalize after luxury-tax penalties reset.

Read at Cubsinsider