State Street Calls It "The first $1 trillion ETF will land this year"

"VOO pulled in roughly $124 billion in net inflows during 2025, absorbing nearly a tenth of the $1.49 trillion that flooded into US ETFs last year. Its expense ratio of 3 basis points matches IVV and undercuts SPY's roughly 9 basis points, a gap that compounds on institutional allocations and explains why advisor model portfolios keep migrating away from the older State Street product."

"Rising NAVs drive most AUM growth: at the current asset base, every 1% move in the S&P 500 adds roughly $8 billion to VOO's net assets before new inflows arrive. Whether VOO crosses $1 trillion in 2026 hinges on the S&P 500's trajectory, specifically the megacap tech complex driving it."

"Watch the index level relative to roughly 7,500 on the S&P 500. A move of that magnitude, combined with steady inflows, gets VOO over the line by year-end. Monitor quarterly earnings from the top three holdings (NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft) as concentration risk remains a key factor."

Vanguard's 500 Index Fund ETF (VOO) is forecast to become the first $1 trillion ETF in 2026, currently holding $839 billion in assets as of early May. VOO attracted $124 billion in net inflows during 2025, capturing nearly one-tenth of all US ETF inflows. Its 3 basis point expense ratio matches competitors but undercuts SPY's 9 basis points, driving institutional migration. Performance gains contribute significantly to asset growth, with every 1% S&P 500 move adding approximately $8 billion. The milestone depends on the index reaching roughly 7,500 combined with continued inflows, particularly influenced by megacap tech holdings including NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft.

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