NVIDIA Price Target Lifted to $300 by KeyBanc: Blackwell and Rubin Are Stacking Catalysts

KeyBanc raised its NVIDIA price target to $300 from $275 while keeping an Overweight rating. The outlook centers on multiple catalysts leading into the May 20 earnings report, including a multi-quarter Blackwell ramp and early Rubin contributions. Blackwell GPU shipments are expected to rise 150,000 to 200,000 quarter over quarter, adding an estimated $5 billion to $7 billion in revenue. Rubin initial revenue of $3 billion to $4 billion is expected, supported by improving HBM4 supply and Rubin GPU shipments of 1.7 million to 1.8 million units this year. China H200 approvals could add $13 billion to $14 billion in potential revenue, though management may exclude it from guidance while describing possible impact. NVIDIA’s fiscal Q1 2027 consensus calls for $78 billion revenue and $1.77 EPS. FY2026 revenue reached $215.94 billion, with net income of $120.07 billion and free cash flow of $96.58 billion.

"KeyBanc raised its price target on NVIDIA to $300 from $275, maintaining an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm's thesis: Blackwell and Rubin are stacking catalysts heading into the May 20 earnings report. For long-term holders, the price target raise reinforces a narrative that has driven NVIDIA stock to a $5.46 trillion market cap and a 19% year-to-date (YTD) gain."

"KeyBanc expects NVIDIA to deliver strong results and guidance driven by several upside catalysts. The firm sees Blackwell GPU shipments rising by 150,000 to 200,000 quarter-over-quarter, adding an estimated $5 billion to $7 billion in revenue. On the next platform, initial Rubin revenue of $3 billion to $4 billion is included in the outlook, with improving HBM4 supply supporting Rubin GPU shipments of 1.7 million to 1.8 million units this year."

"The wild card is geopolitics: China H200 approvals could represent $13 billion to $14 billion in potential revenue, though KeyBanc expects management to exclude this from guidance while still outlining the possible impact. The Analyst's Case KeyBanc expects NVIDIA to deliver strong results and guidance driven by several upside catalysts."

"NVIDIA, led by CEO Jensen Huang, just closed a remarkable fiscal year. FY2026 revenue reached $215.94 billion, up 65% year over year (YoY), with net income of $120.07 billion and free cash flow of $96.58 billion. The most recent quarter showed the engine still accelerating. Q4 FY2026 revenue hit $68.13 billion, up 73% YoY, with Data Center revenue of $62.31 billion and networking revenue of $10.98 billi"

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