"“We've never seen consensus earnings expectations rise so quickly for the current and coming years as they have in recent months,” he said in a note. “The result has been an earnings-led meltup in the stock market.”"
"He sees earnings per share among the large-cap companies coming in at $330 this year, up from an earlier view for $310, with 2027 EPS seen at $375, up from $350. Similarly, his forecasts for S&P 500 revenue per share went by $100 for both 2026 and 2027 to $2,200 and $2,300, respectively, nearly matching the current consensus."
"“Our key assumption is that the economy will remain resilient, and so will earnings,” Yardeni added. “That's been our mantra since we first started writing about the Roaring 2020s during the summer of 2020.”"
"In fact, he also hiked the probability that the Roaring 2020s will continue to 80% from 60% simply by merging it with his meltup scenario, which had 20% odds. Any meltdown will represent a buying opportunity because it won't trigger a recession or bear market, Yardeni added, while keeping his recession odds at 20%."
The S&P 500 year-end forecast is raised to 8,250 from 7,700, making the outlook the most bullish among major Wall Street forecasters. The forecast increase is attributed to recent earnings and a rapid rise in consensus earnings expectations for current and coming years. Large-cap earnings per share are projected at $330 for the current year, up from $310, and $375 for 2027, up from $350. Revenue per share forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are raised to $2,200 and $2,300, aligning closely with current consensus. The key assumption is that the economy remains resilient and earnings stay strong. The probability of continued “Roaring 2020s” is increased to 80%, while recession odds remain at 20%.
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