KeyBanc Cuts McDonald's Price Target to $330 as April Softness Tests the Recovery Thesis

"The price target cut follows McDonald's Q1 2026 earnings and reflects April softness that the firm characterized as "likely transitory" due largely to a tough year-over-year (YoY) comparison. For prudent investors, this analyst downgrade reads as a calibrated update rather than a thesis change."

"Gonzalez told clients there were "no major surprises" in McDonald's Q1 earnings report, with U.S. and International Operated Markets comparable sales coming in perhaps slightly higher than investor expectations. The main caveat is April: trends softened, but a tough YoY comparison is doing much of the work."

"That distinction matters for McDonald's. KeyBanc flagged the lap effect from a strong April 2025 and argued underlying momentum should re-emerge once the comparison normalizes. Macro uncertainty will very much remain in focus in the meantime."

"McDonald's reported Q1 2026 EPS of $2.83 versus the $2.74 consensus, with revenue of $6.52 billion, up 9% YoY. Global comparable sales rose 4%, with U.S. comps up 4% on positive check growth. Loyalty continues scaling at McDonald's: systemwide sales to loyalty members exceeded $9 billion in the quarter across 70 markets."

A lowered price target of $330 from $345 was issued for McDonald’s while keeping an Overweight rating. The change followed Q1 2026 earnings and reflected softer April trends attributed largely to a difficult year-over-year comparison. Q1 results showed no major surprises, with U.S. and International Operated Markets comparable sales coming in slightly above expectations. The main caveat was April, where trends softened but were expected to improve as the comparison normalizes. McDonald’s reported Q1 2026 EPS of $2.83 versus $2.74 consensus and revenue of $6.52 billion, up 9% year over year. Global comparable sales rose 4%, U.S. comps rose 4% on positive check growth, loyalty sales exceeded $9 billion across 70 markets, operating income rose 12%, and the company returned $1.3 billion in dividends and $393 million in buybacks.

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