Jefferies analyst: Oracle down 50% but in 'better spot' with accelerating growth

"The stock is down 50% from when they announced the OpenAI transaction. And we think ultimately Oracle is in a better, better spot. It's one of the few accelerating growth stories in our sector. Oracle hit $308.70 at the time of its Q1 FY2026 filing in September 2025, and it's trading around $158.81 as of March 6, 2026."

"Oracle's infrastructure cloud revenue has been on a straight-line acceleration: up 49% in Q3 FY2025, 52% in Q4, 55% in Q1 FY2026, and 68% in Q2 FY2026. The Remaining Performance Obligations jumped from $130 billion in Q3 FY2025 to $523 billion in Q2 FY2026, a surge of 438% year over year."

"Thill's bull case rests on earnings power. He sees Oracle reaching $16 to $20 in earnings per share, and at a 20x multiple, that implies a range of roughly $300 to $400 per share."

Oracle's stock has experienced a sharp decline of approximately 50% from its peak following the OpenAI transaction announcement, trading around $158.81 as of March 2026. However, the company's underlying cloud business demonstrates strong acceleration, with infrastructure cloud revenue growing from 49% in Q3 FY2025 to 68% in Q2 FY2026. Most significantly, Remaining Performance Obligations surged from $130 billion to $523 billion year-over-year, representing a 438% increase in contracted future revenue. Jefferies analyst Brent Thill maintains a Buy rating despite trimming his price target from $400 to $320, arguing Oracle represents one of the few accelerating growth stories in the sector. His bull case projects earnings per share reaching $16-$20, which at a 20x multiple implies a valuation range of $300-$400 per share.

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