"On January 13th, his bank reported that the U.S. economy has remained resilient. "While labor markets have softened, conditions do not appear to be worsening," Dimon's team wrote. "Meanwhile, consumers continue to spend, and businesses generally remain healthy. These conditions could persist for some time, particularly with ongoing fiscal stimulus, the benefits of deregulation and the Fed's recent monetary policy.""
"On January 14th, he said, "In our consumer businesses, credit cards continue to see strong increases in spend and new accounts grew over 20% from a year ago." He also said that auto lending "returned to growth with balances up 19% from the prior year" and that "In our commercial businesses, loans grew 12%." He is not reporting significant exposures, nor has he seen a "meaningful shift" in customer data, including checking account flows, direct deposit amounts, overdraft activity an"
Government data and many surveys can be unreliable due to revisions, outdated methodologies, and biased sponsors. The economy can be assessed by tracking three components: capital, consumers, and jobs. Large-bank internal data show resilience: JPMorgan observed softened labor markets but stable conditions, continued consumer spending, and generally healthy businesses supported by fiscal stimulus, deregulation, and monetary policy. Wells Fargo reported strong credit-card spending and account growth, renewed auto-lending growth with balances up 19% year-over-year, and commercial loan growth of 12%, with no major customer-data shifts or significant exposures reported.
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