"February payrolls fell by 92,000 - a number that Goldman economist David Mericle called a "reminder that job growth is still too low." The bank's estimate of underlying job creation sits barely above zero, trailing even the 70,000 jobs-per-month breakeven rate needed just to keep pace with new labor market entrants."
"The war in Iran has thrown a volatile new input into an already complicated economic equation. Goldman's baseline forecast has Brent crude averaging $98 per barrel in March and April before retreating to $71 by year-end. In a worst-case scenario-a one-month disruption to the Strait of Hormuz-Brent could spike to $110, sending headline inflation to a spring peak near 4.5%."
"Goldman Sachs is sounding a new alarm: the U.S. economy is slipping, and the war in Iran is making it worse. The bank raised its 12-month recession probability to 25% Thursday-up 5 percentage points- after a brutal February jobs report and surging oil prices forced economists to tear up their forecasts."
Goldman Sachs increased its 12-month recession probability to 25% following a February jobs report showing payroll declines of 92,000 and surging oil prices linked to Iran conflict. The unemployment rate rose to 4.44%, with Goldman projecting it to reach 4.6% by Q3. Underlying job creation remains barely above zero, trailing the 70,000 monthly breakeven rate needed to match labor force growth. Oil prices present significant uncertainty, with Brent crude potentially reaching $110 per barrel in worst-case scenarios, pushing headline inflation toward 4.5%. Goldman raised its headline PCE inflation forecast by 0.8 percentage points to 2.9% by year-end. Trump's tariffs have already contributed over 70 basis points to core inflation, compounding economic pressures.
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