"Yet, after peaking near $208 in late October, the stock has pulled back below $165, down over 20% from those highs, with broader market rotations away from tech and valuation worries contributing to the stall. Prediction markets, though, offer a window into trader sentiment on which way they expect the stock to go. What emerges is no clear consensus: bettors expect a range-bound finish to 2025."
"Decentralized platform Polymarket lets users bet on real-world outcomes, including stock prices, through yes/no contracts that trade like shares priced from $0.01 to $1.00. The probability of an outcome equals the yes share price. For Palantir, the market "Will Palantir (PLTR) close above ___ end of December?" features thresholds from $154 to $178, resolving based on the official Yahoo Finance close on Dec. 31."
"Today, odds hover around 50% for beating almost every price level - $154 at 50% (yes at 97¢), $160 at 48% (91¢), $164 at 53% (99¢), $170 at 52% (99¢), and $178 at 52% (99¢). Trading volume, however, sits at just $10 across markets, signaling low liquidity and few participants. But the even split also reflects trader caution. No strong consensus points to a breakout; instead, bets cluster near the current $169 price, implying a close around $165 to $170 per share."
Palantir shares rose more than 117% year-to-date in 2025 driven by AI momentum, strong revenue growth, and major government contracts. The stock peaked near $208 in late October then pulled back below $165, falling over 20% from highs amid tech rotations and valuation concerns. Polymarket prediction markets show roughly 50% odds across year-end thresholds, with bets clustering near the current $169 price and only about $10 in trading volume, indicating low liquidity and few participants. Markets imply a likely close around $165–$170 and view extreme moves above $178 or below $154 as unlikely. Palantir reported Q3 revenue of $1.18 billion, up 63% year-over-year and beating estimates.
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
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