""The future is uncertain, but we shouldn't just wait for it to arrive," the researchers wrote in a report on their findings. "If we try to predict what will happen, if we pay attention to the trends and extrapolate them, if we build models of the underlying dynamics, then we'll have a better sense of what is likely, and we'll be less unprepared for what happens.""
"According to LessWrong's new AI Futures Model, AI will reach the level of "superhuman coder" by February 2032, and could ascend to artificial superintelligence (ASI) within five years of that. A superhuman coder is an AI system that can run 30x as many agents as an organization has human engineers with 5% of its compute budget. It works autonomously at the level of a top human coder, performing tasks in 30x less time than the organization's best engineer, the researchers explained."
"The extended timeline comes just eight months after LessWrong's initial findings, underscoring the precarious, subjective, ever-shifting nature of AI forecasting."
Projections now place full coding automation five to six years in the future, later than previous estimates that targeted 2027–2028. Superhuman coder capability is projected by February 2032, with artificial superintelligence potentially arising within five years thereafter. A superhuman coder is defined as an AI that can run 30× as many agents as an organization has human engineers while using 5% of its compute and completing tasks 30× faster than top human engineers. The timeline extension reflects reduced expectations for AI R&D speedups and adoption of a software intelligence explosion framework. Slower, stepwise progress provides organizations additional time to plan and adapt.
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