"Both have said that such a system could go online by the end of 2026, bringing, perhaps, cancer cures or novel bioweapons. (Amodei says he prefers the term powerful AI to AGI, because the latter is overhyped.) But wait: Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis says we might wait another decade for AGI. And-hold on-OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in an interview last month that "AGI kind of went whooshing by" already;"
"What the differences in opinion should serve to illustrate is exactly how squishy the notions of AGI, or powerful AI, or superintelligence really are. Developing a "general" intelligence was a core reason DeepMind, OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI were founded. And not even two years ago, these CEOs had fairly similar forecasts that AGI would arrive by the late-2020s. Now the consensus is gone: Not only are the timelines scattered,"
Hundreds of billions of dollars have been invested in AI pursuing artificial general intelligence, conceived as a system matching human thinking across tasks. Leading AI executives offer divergent forecasts: some predict powerful systems by the end of 2026, others expect a decade or more, and some suggest AGI has already been surpassed and attention should shift to superintelligence. Superintelligence is characterized as systems outperforming humans at highly demanding roles. The broad disagreement exposes unclear definitions, scattered timelines, and uncertain immediate value, undermining previous consensus about when and what such systems would deliver.
Read at The Atlantic
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