"I think it can be done in 30 years, provided there's an exponential increase in the tonnage to Mars with each successive Mars transfer window, which is every two years. Every two years, the planets align and you can transfer to Mars. I think in roughly 15, but maybe as few as 10, but 10-15-ish Mars transfer windows. If you're seeing exponential increases in the tonnage to Mars with each Mars transfer window, then it should be possible to make Mars self-sustaining in about call it roughly 25 years," Musk said."
"Musk noted that true self-sufficiency requires Mars to develop "all the ingredients of civilization," from food production to microchip manufacturing. Starship Version 3 is expected to support the first uncrewed Mars test flights, while future iterations could reach 466 feet in height and deliver larger payloads critical for settlement. Ultimately, Musk stated that an aggressive timeline for a city on Mars could be as short as 30 years, as noted in a Space.com report."
A self-sustaining human settlement on Mars could be established in roughly 25–30 years if launch capacity and cargo tonnage to Mars increase dramatically over coming decades. Exponential growth in tonnage every two-year Mars transfer window is presented as the key enabling factor for rapid settlement. True self-sufficiency on Mars requires local development of food production, manufacturing, and other "ingredients of civilization," including microchip production. Starship Version 3 is planned to support initial uncrewed Mars test flights, and larger future Starship iterations could carry greater payloads needed for city-scale settlement.
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