By averaging survey responses from 2,778 AI researchers who met the authors' own standard for notability, and comparing them to a previous similar survey, the authors found that broadly speaking, AI experts perceive a sense of acceleration across the board.
The authors note that on average, when it came to questions about 32 different AI-related tasks, “the 50th percentile year they were expected to become feasible shifted 1.0 years earlier,” between 2022 and 2023.