""A key downside risk to the projection is a correction to equity markets that have been buoyed by the hopes of high returns to investment in AI, although new advances in AI could boost growth in the years ahead," the OECD wrote in its semi-annual projection. By the numbers: The group projects the U.S. economy will grow 2% this year, falling to 1.7% in 2026 and then rising back to 1.9% in 2027."
"It cited weakening employment growth and the price impact of tariffs, and it said more interest rate cutting "appears warranted," even with expected inflation rising to 3% next year from 2.7% this year."
OECD projects U.S. GDP growth of 2% this year, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027. The projection cites weakening employment growth and the price impact of tariffs as headwinds. A correction to equity markets driven by hopes of high returns from AI is identified as a key downside risk, while new AI advances could boost growth in coming years. Expected inflation is projected to rise to 3% next year from 2.7% this year. The projection indicates that additional interest-rate cutting appears warranted despite the inflation uptick.
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