Haaland's Norway to Ronaldo's swansong: Who are the most likely first-time World Cup winners?

Expanding the 2026 World Cup to 48 teams was framed as giving more nations a chance, yet past results show favorites are usually former champions. Only eight nations have won the men’s World Cup, and many former champions do not arrive in peak condition. Spain enter as European champions with world-class talent, while Argentina aim to defend their 2022 title after winning Copa America in 2024. France reach the last two finals and are viewed as the strongest side, with Kylian Mbappé claiming the squad is his best. England, Brazil, Germany, Uruguay, and Italy face concerns including inconsistent friendlies, qualifying struggles, missing a reliable striker, longshot expectations, and failure to qualify. The Round of 32, travel demands, extreme temperatures, and expensive tickets may further increase upset potential.

"When Fifa expanded the field for the 2026 World Cup to 48 teams, the sales pitch included giving more nations a chance at glory. In reality, the favorites are nearly always former champions. To date, only eight nations have won the men's World Cup. And yet, few of the former champions arrive at this summer's tournament in their finest form."

"Spain are a justifiably popular pick as the reigning European champions have plenty of world-class talent. Argentina will hope to defend their title from 2022 after following it up with the Copa America in 2024. France, who top our power rankings, have reached the last two finals, and Kylian Mbappe claims this squad is the best he has been a part of."

"Beyond them, however, lie plenty of questions. England strolled through qualifying but were unimpressive in their last two friendlies. Brazil struggled in qualifying they lost six matches and are still acclimating to Carlo Ancelotti, while Germany have some great young players but arrive without a dependable No 9. Uruguay are a longshot under Marcelo Bielsa, while Italy missed out altogether (again)."

"The newly hatched Round of 32 is another hurdle to trip up one of the favorites. Tack on the considerable travel teams must negotiate and historically high temperatures, plus expensive tickets that may lead to tense atmospheres as supporters look to get their money's worth, and there are plenty of reasons to think we could be in for a surprise winner."

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