The Cubs lost a game despite a hero moment from Michael Conforto, including a game-tying home run in the Crosstown Classic. Conforto has produced at an extraordinary level early in the season, hitting .345/.456/.655 with a 208 wRC+ while receiving limited starts and pinch-hit appearances. With only 68 plate appearances, he leads the league by a wide margin in wRC+. His xwOBA ranks second in baseball behind Yordan Alvarez, suggesting the results align with expected performance. His Win Probability Added is 1.74, placing him near the top of the leaderboard and indicating his production has meaningfully affected high-leverage moments.
"The homer continued an unbelievable start to the season for Michael Conforto, made all the more unbelievable by the fact that he is hitting .345/.456/.655/208 wRC+ despite getting only infrequent starts and pinch-hit appearances. Conforto has gotten just 68 plate appearances this season, but it bears pointing out that no one with at least that many PAs is even within 10 points of his wRC+. He's leading the league by a relative mile."
"And in case you think it's all just flukey luck, consider that his xwOBA (a measure of what kind of results he SHOULD be getting based on his walks, strikeouts, and quality of his contact) is the second best in baseball, behind only Yordan Alvarez. The sample is small, yes. But Conforto is absolutely doing deserved, ridiculous things when he has the chance."
"That's why his Win Probability Added remains among the league's best for any player of any amount of playing time. At 1.74 WPA, Conforto is just fractionally behind Matt Olson for 6th place on the leaderboard, and he leads the Cubs by a healthy margin (Michael Busch is 18th at 1.37)."
"As we've discussed before, WPA is not a great measure of how good a player is, or an especially predictive measure going forward. But what it does is evaluate how much a guy's production has ACTUALLY impacted games in the moments that matter most. And, in this case, the advanced stats absolutely match the eye test: Michael Conforto has been one of the clutchiest clutch dudes al"
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